Net Zero Australia Study (interim results Aug 2022) - comments from the Engevity Team
Interesting interim results from the Net Zero Australia study. See below for a few initial thoughts from the Engevity team:
- Electrification (both stationary and mobile end-uses) is a foundational pillar for meeting aggressive decarbonisation objectives over the long-term.
- The reliance on 'rapid electrification' in four of the scenarios emphasises the transformational changes that will need to occur across the energy system, and raises multiple questions around infrastructure investment, grid reliability and stability, and consumer behavioural change.
- In particular, the strategic and organised shutdown of the gas system, at least in parts, would require comprehensive transition planning to avoid perverse and costly outcomes. Issues to consider include viability of large-scale retrofits, ongoing system investments, minimum gas throughput requirements and options for large gas users beyond electrification.
- Linked to electrification, renewable electricity becomes the dominate source of primary energy supply.
- Wind and solar generation exceeds 1,200 TWh/year by 2050 across all scenarios.
- For reference, AEMO projected renewable energy generation in the NEM of roughly 190 TWh in 2040 in the 2020 Integrated System Plan Central Scenario.
- Bioenergy plays a crucial role in reducing emissions across the economy, particularly in sectors with limited decarbonisation options.
- Bioenergy consumption ramps-up aggressively, both in volume and timing, across all scenarios – approaching 800 petajoules (PJ) by 2035. For reference, about 10 PJ of bioenergy was used to generate electricity across Australia in 2020.
- Significant investment combined with supportive regulatory frameworks would be needed to deliver these volumes of bioenergy, including infrastructure investment and supply-chain development in rural and regional Australia.
- Consistent with other net zero studies around the world, biomass is seen as a valuable long-term feedstock for low-carbon fuels, but other issues would need to be considered as the deployment of bioenergy increases, especially land-use change and other sustainability concerns.
- Emissions from the land sector (forestry and agriculture) will decline out to 2050, but there remains high uncertainty around the potential for the land sector to be a significant ‘emissions sink’ (i.e. biosequestration).
- Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) is rapidly deployed across all scenarios.
- The prominent use of ‘reach’ technologies, such as CCUS, indicates a large role for government to drive investment, as well as deliver robust regulatory and legal frameworks.
Link to report Net Zero Australia Interim Results August 2022
Image: Courtesy of Net Zero Australia
Author: Craig Chambers, Maurice Oldham